Betting Lines
| Spread | NEB -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | NEB -115 ILL -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +9 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | NEB -1.0 (-10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (-1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEB -3.0 (-12.0) | 144.0 (+3.0) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEB -2.7 (-11.7) | 148.5 (-1.5) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEB -4.7 (-13.7) | 142.4 (+4.6) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NEB -5.1 (-14.1) | 143.9 (+3.1) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 13, 2025 | NEB 83 – 80 ILL |
| Jan 31, 2025 | NEB 80 – 74 ILL |
| Mar 16, 2024 | ILL 98 – 87 NEB |
| Feb 4, 2024 | ILL 87 – 84 NEB |
| Feb 1, 2023 | ILL 72 – 56 NEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEB | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 15-5 |
| Home | 16-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-3 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 83.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 20.2 (#13) | 22.2 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.21 (#3) | 4.12 (#7) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.86 (#5) | 5.47 (#8) |
| RPI | 0.671 (#5) | 0.646 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEB | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 41.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 2.04 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 39.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 11.9% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 13.5% |
Game Analysis
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