Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | ILL -213 NEB +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +11 | 185 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -4.8 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.6 (+28.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -5.6 (+5.4) | 159.0 (+26.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -3.7 (+7.3) | 155.9 (+29.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -3.6 (+7.4) | 154.6 (+30.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -3.4 (+7.6) | 155.9 (+29.1) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | ILL 78 – 69 NEB |
| Dec 13, 2025 | NEB 83 – 80 ILL |
| Jan 31, 2025 | NEB 80 – 74 ILL |
| Feb 4, 2024 | ILL 87 – 84 NEB |
| Feb 1, 2023 | ILL 72 – 56 NEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 12-8 |
| Home | 15-3 | 18-1 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 16.9 (#14) | 12.0 (#42) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.52 (#13) | 2.07 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.28 (#9) | 2.60 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.607 (#16) | 0.581 (#41) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 41.4 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.5% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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