Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | NEB +165 ILL -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEB +6 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -8.0 (+14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.0 (+0.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -4.8 (+10.8) | 155.5 (-1.5) | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -5.0 (+11.0) | 155.5 (-1.5) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -4.2 (+10.2) | 150.9 (+3.1) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -5.7 (+11.7) | 153.8 (+0.2) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | ILL 78 – 69 NEB |
| Dec 13, 2025 | NEB 83 – 80 ILL |
| Mar 16, 2024 | ILL 98 – 87 NEB |
| Feb 4, 2024 | ILL 87 – 84 NEB |
| Feb 1, 2023 | ILL 72 – 56 NEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEB | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 12-8 |
| Home | 10-6 | 13-4 |
| Away | 5-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 83.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 9.9 (#61) | 21.2 (#8) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#57) | 2.67 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#49) | 3.67 (#27) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#44) | 0.597 (#37) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEB | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 45.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 36.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 44.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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