Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -1400 NEB +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +16 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -12.8 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (-6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -11.2 (+4.8) | 137.2 (-9.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -13.7 (+2.3) | 135.8 (-7.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -10.8 (+5.2) | 135.9 (-7.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -10.8 (+5.2) | 135.9 (-7.9) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | ILL 78 – 69 NEB |
| Dec 13, 2025 | NEB 83 – 80 ILL |
| Jan 31, 2025 | NEB 80 – 74 ILL |
| Mar 16, 2024 | ILL 98 – 87 NEB |
| Feb 4, 2024 | ILL 87 – 84 NEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 9-11 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 13.5 (#20) | 4.2 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.22 (#28) | 1.07 (#85) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.65 (#31) | 1.34 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#54) | 0.541 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 15.1% |
Game Analysis
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