Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | ILL -600 NEB +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +3 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -10.6 (-7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.7 (+14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -10.4 (-7.4) | 155.5 (+15.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -10.1 (-7.1) | 157.2 (+13.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -9.2 (-6.2) | 155.8 (+15.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -9.5 (-6.5) | 156.3 (+14.7) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | ILL 78 – 69 NEB |
| Dec 13, 2025 | NEB 83 – 80 ILL |
| Jan 31, 2025 | NEB 80 – 74 ILL |
| Mar 16, 2024 | ILL 98 – 87 NEB |
| Feb 1, 2023 | ILL 72 – 56 NEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 12-8 |
| Home | 15-3 | 18-1 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 16.9 (#12) | 9.7 (#56) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.36 (#20) | 2.02 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.05 (#17) | 2.49 (#36) |
| RPI | 0.615 (#19) | 0.593 (#38) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 42.9 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 36.7% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.3% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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