Hop in my Chrysler, it's as big as a whale and it's about to set sail. "Love Shack" - The B-52's
Big Ten Conference · State Farm Center · December 13, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread ILL -9.5 Away covered
O/U 156.5 Over
Money ILL -500 / NEB +380
Model Predictions
Spread Total ILL win
Actual NEB +3 163 Lost
Massey ILL -10.2 (-13.2)
Massey Totals 155.7 (+7.3)
Bradley-Terry 47%
Weighted B-T 46%
Efficiency Plus ML ILL -9.6 (-12.6) 156.5 (+6.5) 77%
Baseline Tuned ML ILL -9.2 (-12.2) 148.9 (+14.1) 75%
Baseline ML ILL -7.4 (-10.4) 149.2 (+13.8) 77%
Baseline Plus ML ILL -8.6 (-11.6) 152.4 (+10.6) 75%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 1, 2026 ILL 7869 NEB
Jan 31, 2025 NEB 8074 ILL
Mar 16, 2024 ILL 9887 NEB
Feb 4, 2024 ILL 8784 NEB
Feb 1, 2023 ILL 7256 NEB

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ILL NEB
Overall 28-9 28-7
Conference 15-5 15-5
Home 14-3 16-2
Away 8-2 7-3
Neutral 6-4 5-2
Last 5 4-1 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 83.2 77.0
Avg Pts Against 68.8 66.1
Massey 20.2 (#11) 14.7 (#30)
Bradley-Terry 2.97 (#20) 4.02 (#9)
W. Bradley-Terry 4.49 (#19) 5.69 (#10)
RPI 0.641 (#20) 0.696 (#3)
Shooting & Four Factors ILL NEB
FG% 47.8% 48.2%
3PT% 33.9% 35.0%
REB / G 42.4 38.5
OREB / G 13.1 9.2
AST / TO 1.44 1.83
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 55.5% 57.2%
TOV% 13.7% 14.3%
ORB% 37.8% 26.7%
FT Rate 28.3% 22.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.8% 45.1%
Opp TOV% 12.8% 18.3%
DRB% 73.8% 72.5%
Opp FT Rate 14.8% 15.2%

Game Analysis

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