Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | ILL -500 NEB +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEB +3 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -10.2 (-13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.7 (+7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -8.6 (-11.6) | 152.4 (+10.6) | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -9.6 (-12.6) | 156.5 (+6.5) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -9.2 (-12.2) | 148.9 (+14.1) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -7.4 (-10.4) | 149.2 (+13.8) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | ILL 78 – 69 NEB |
| Jan 31, 2025 | NEB 80 – 74 ILL |
| Mar 16, 2024 | ILL 98 – 87 NEB |
| Feb 4, 2024 | ILL 87 – 84 NEB |
| Feb 1, 2023 | ILL 72 – 56 NEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 15-5 |
| Home | 14-3 | 16-2 |
| Away | 8-2 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 20.2 (#11) | 14.7 (#30) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.97 (#20) | 4.02 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.49 (#19) | 5.69 (#10) |
| RPI | 0.641 (#20) | 0.696 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 42.4 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 57.2% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 37.8% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.8% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.8% | 15.2% |
Game Analysis
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