Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | FOR +275 DAY -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +24 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | DAY -3.7 (-20.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.4 (+12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -4.1 (-19.9) | 131.9 (+8.1) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -3.5 (-20.5) | 134.4 (+5.6) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -3.5 (-20.5) | 131.7 (+8.3) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -4.3 (-19.7) | 133.0 (+7.0) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | DAY 63 – 56 FOR |
| Feb 13, 2025 | DAY 93 – 76 FOR |
| Feb 17, 2024 | DAY 78 – 70 FOR |
| Mar 11, 2023 | DAY 78 – 68 FOR |
| Jan 26, 2022 | DAY 68 – 61 FOR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 12-6 |
| Home | 18-2 | 14-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 61.0 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#178) | 7.6 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#120) | 1.11 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#136) | 1.67 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#137) | 0.552 (#87) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.0% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 42.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 14.6% |
Game Analysis
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