Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | FOR +290 DAY -380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +17 | 169 | Lost |
| Massey | DAY -6.8 (-10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.5 (+15.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -6.2 (-10.8) | 146.3 (+22.7) | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -5.7 (-11.3) | 145.0 (+24.0) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -5.4 (-11.6) | 146.1 (+22.9) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -5.9 (-11.1) | 145.8 (+23.2) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | DAY 63 – 56 FOR |
| Feb 17, 2024 | DAY 78 – 70 FOR |
| Mar 11, 2023 | DAY 78 – 68 FOR |
| Jan 11, 2023 | DAY 82 – 58 FOR |
| Jan 26, 2022 | DAY 68 – 61 FOR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-8 | 16-2 |
| Away | 2-10 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#214) | 7.1 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#199) | 1.28 (#74) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#195) | 1.73 (#74) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#198) | 0.562 (#65) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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