Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Dayton Flyers
63 56
FINAL Conference
Fordham Rams
Atlantic 10 Conference · UD Arena · December 31, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread DAY -16.5 Away covered
O/U 139.5 Under
Money DAY -1800 / FOR +1000
Model Predictions
Spread Total DAY win
Actual DAY +7 119 Won
Massey DAY -13.8 (-6.8)
Massey Totals 135.0 (-16.0)
Bradley-Terry 94%
Weighted B-T 96%
Efficiency Plus ML DAY -12.5 (-5.5) 139.3 (-20.3) 87%
Baseline Tuned ML DAY -11.3 (-4.3) 136.1 (-17.1) 87%
Baseline ML DAY -11.3 (-4.3) 135.4 (-16.4) 85%
Baseline Plus ML DAY -11.2 (-4.2) 135.6 (-16.6) 86%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 13, 2025 DAY 9376 FOR
Feb 17, 2024 DAY 7870 FOR
Mar 11, 2023 DAY 7868 FOR
Jan 11, 2023 DAY 8258 FOR
Jan 26, 2022 DAY 6861 FOR

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings DAY FOR
Overall 25-12 17-15
Conference 12-6 8-10
Home 14-4 11-7
Away 8-5 4-6
Neutral 3-3 1-2
Last 5 3-2 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 74.1 67.6
Avg Pts Against 69.3 66.3
Massey 7.1 (#84) -2.6 (#204)
Bradley-Terry 0.89 (#110) -1.23 (#272)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.25 (#109) -1.35 (#256)
RPI 0.535 (#108) 0.389 (#339)
Shooting & Four Factors DAY FOR
FG% 46.2% 46.2%
3PT% 32.5% 29.5%
REB / G 33.8 39.3
OREB / G 9.2 12.0
AST / TO 1.25 1.30
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.3% 51.6%
TOV% 16.5% 16.8%
ORB% 27.3% 35.4%
FT Rate 35.2% 15.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.4% 46.8%
Opp TOV% 23.4% 16.3%
DRB% 71.1% 74.8%
Opp FT Rate 22.3% 15.1%

Game Analysis

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