Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | DAY -1800 FOR +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +7 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -13.8 (-6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.0 (-16.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -11.2 (-4.2) | 135.6 (-16.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -12.5 (-5.5) | 139.3 (-20.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -11.3 (-4.3) | 136.1 (-17.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -11.3 (-4.3) | 135.4 (-16.4) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2025 | DAY 93 – 76 FOR |
| Feb 17, 2024 | DAY 78 – 70 FOR |
| Mar 11, 2023 | DAY 78 – 68 FOR |
| Jan 11, 2023 | DAY 82 – 58 FOR |
| Jan 26, 2022 | DAY 68 – 61 FOR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-4 | 11-7 |
| Away | 8-5 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#84) | -2.6 (#204) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#110) | -1.23 (#272) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.25 (#109) | -1.35 (#256) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#108) | 0.389 (#339) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 35.2% | 15.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.4% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 15.1% |
Game Analysis
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