Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | DAY -305 FOR +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +10 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -6.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.2 (+18.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -3.8 (+6.2) | 130.5 (+15.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -5.1 (+4.9) | 129.7 (+16.3) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -3.7 (+6.3) | 128.9 (+17.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -4.1 (+5.9) | 130.5 (+15.5) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | DAY 63 – 56 FOR |
| Feb 13, 2025 | DAY 93 – 76 FOR |
| Feb 17, 2024 | DAY 78 – 70 FOR |
| Jan 11, 2023 | DAY 82 – 58 FOR |
| Jan 26, 2022 | DAY 68 – 61 FOR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 12-6 |
| Home | 14-2 | 18-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.0 | 67.6 |
| Massey | 7.8 (#77) | 1.8 (#138) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#98) | 1.17 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.34 (#88) | 1.13 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#84) | 0.556 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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