Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.0 Under |
| Money | DAY -1100 FOR +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +7 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -11.9 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.3 (+1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -13.3 (-6.3) | 128.8 (+0.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -11.9 (-4.9) | 130.2 (-1.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -11.5 (-4.5) | 130.5 (-1.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -10.9 (-3.9) | 131.7 (-2.7) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | DAY 63 – 56 FOR |
| Feb 13, 2025 | DAY 93 – 76 FOR |
| Feb 17, 2024 | DAY 78 – 70 FOR |
| Mar 11, 2023 | DAY 78 – 68 FOR |
| Jan 11, 2023 | DAY 82 – 58 FOR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 7-6 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.2 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#71) | -0.6 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#104) | -0.07 (#179) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#96) | 0.06 (#168) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#110) | 0.490 (#186) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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