Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | DAY -1600 FOR +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +8 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -18.6 (-10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.8 (+7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -16.7 (-8.7) | 138.3 (+9.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -14.0 (-6.0) | 141.6 (+6.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -16.6 (-8.6) | 139.9 (+8.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -16.9 (-8.9) | 139.6 (+8.4) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | DAY 63 – 56 FOR |
| Feb 13, 2025 | DAY 93 – 76 FOR |
| Mar 11, 2023 | DAY 78 – 68 FOR |
| Jan 11, 2023 | DAY 82 – 58 FOR |
| Jan 26, 2022 | DAY 68 – 61 FOR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 6-12 |
| Home | 15-0 | 6-11 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 13.2 (#28) | -2.1 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#14) | -0.50 (#217) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.25 (#10) | -0.73 (#232) |
| RPI | 0.647 (#5) | 0.473 (#223) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 39.2% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.0% | 31.4% |
Game Analysis
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