I love it when you call me Big Poppa "Big Poppa" - Notorious B.I.G.
Dayton Flyers
78 70
FINAL Conference
Fordham Rams
Atlantic 10 Conference · UD Arena · February 17, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread DAY -14.5 Away covered
O/U 138.5 Over
Money DAY -1600 / FOR +650
Model Predictions
Spread Total DAY win
Actual DAY +8 148 Won
Massey DAY -18.6 (-10.6)
Massey Totals 140.8 (+7.2)
Bradley-Terry 98%
Weighted B-T 99%
Efficiency Plus ML DAY -14.0 (-6.0) 141.6 (+6.4) 89%
Baseline Tuned ML DAY -16.6 (-8.6) 139.9 (+8.1) 90%
Baseline ML DAY -16.9 (-8.9) 139.6 (+8.4) 90%
Baseline Plus ML DAY -16.7 (-8.7) 138.3 (+9.7) 89%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 31, 2025 DAY 6356 FOR
Feb 13, 2025 DAY 9376 FOR
Mar 11, 2023 DAY 7868 FOR
Jan 11, 2023 DAY 8258 FOR
Jan 26, 2022 DAY 6861 FOR

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings DAY FOR
Overall 25-8 13-20
Conference 14-4 6-12
Home 15-0 6-11
Away 6-5 4-6
Neutral 4-3 3-3
Last 5 4-1 1-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 74.2 70.5
Avg Pts Against 66.5 72.4
Massey 13.2 (#28) -2.1 (#203)
Bradley-Terry 2.63 (#14) -0.50 (#217)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.25 (#10) -0.73 (#232)
RPI 0.647 (#5) 0.473 (#223)
Shooting & Four Factors DAY FOR
FG% 47.2% 41.1%
3PT% 39.2% 32.1%
REB / G 34.2 37.2
OREB / G 8.4 12.8
AST / TO 1.52 1.01
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 55.9% 47.7%
TOV% 15.2% 18.3%
ORB% 27.2% 31.9%
FT Rate 27.4% 23.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.8% 50.6%
Opp TOV% 15.8% 20.2%
DRB% 70.1% 72.5%
Opp FT Rate 14.0% 31.4%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.