Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +34 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | ISU -5.5 (+28.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.6 (+8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -7.5 (+26.5) | 128.6 (+5.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -6.7 (+27.3) | 132.0 (+2.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -6.4 (+27.6) | 132.6 (+1.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -6.8 (+27.2) | 131.6 (+2.4) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | ISU 75 – 53 TTU |
| Feb 28, 2026 | TTU 82 – 73 ISU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | ISU 85 – 84 TTU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | ISU 82 – 74 TTU |
| Jan 31, 2023 | TTU 80 – 77 ISU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-3 | 11-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.6 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 12.8 (#20) | 11.4 (#30) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.20 (#9) | 0.69 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.61 (#10) | 0.94 (#106) |
| RPI | 0.613 (#23) | 0.497 (#185) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 49.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.2% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 29.9% | 23.2% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 17.0% |
Game Analysis
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