Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | TTU -150 ISU +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TTU +3 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | ISU -1.2 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.3 (+30.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -0.7 (+3.7) | 131.3 (+25.7) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -0.5 (+3.5) | 129.8 (+27.2) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -1.5 (+4.5) | 132.6 (+24.4) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -1.2 (+4.2) | 132.9 (+24.1) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | ISU 75 – 53 TTU |
| Feb 28, 2026 | TTU 82 – 73 ISU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | ISU 85 – 84 TTU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | ISU 82 – 74 TTU |
| Jan 11, 2023 | ISU 84 – 50 TTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TTU | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-6 | 13-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 62.6 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#52) | 14.5 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#114) | 2.83 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#102) | 3.34 (#15) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#161) | 0.618 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TTU | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 27.4% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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