Betting Lines
| Spread | ARMY -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | ARMY -110 AMER +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARMY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARMY +12 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | AMER -0.3 (+12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.1 (-9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARMY -0.2 (+11.8) | 135.4 (-3.4) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARMY -0.3 (+11.7) | 134.0 (-2.0) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -0.6 (+12.6) | 140.3 (-8.3) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -1.0 (+13.0) | 140.8 (-8.8) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | AMER 75 – 63 ARMY |
| Jan 18, 2026 | AMER 78 – 67 ARMY |
| Feb 19, 2025 | ARMY 76 – 69 AMER |
| Feb 1, 2025 | AMER 71 – 68 ARMY |
| Feb 28, 2024 | AMER 73 – 51 ARMY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARMY | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 7-8 | 9-9 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 65.9 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#239) | 0.8 (#156) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#292) | 0.63 (#119) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.44 (#284) | 0.61 (#128) |
| RPI | 0.420 (#305) | 0.506 (#167) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARMY | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 49.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 56.8% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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