Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Over |
| Money | ARMY +155 AMER -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARMY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +22 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | AMER -1.7 (-20.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -3.9 (-18.1) | 126.2 (-2.2) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -3.1 (-18.9) | 124.8 (-0.8) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -2.3 (-19.7) | 126.8 (-2.8) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -4.3 (-17.7) | 127.7 (-3.7) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | AMER 75 – 63 ARMY |
| Jan 18, 2026 | AMER 78 – 67 ARMY |
| Feb 19, 2025 | ARMY 76 – 69 AMER |
| Feb 1, 2025 | AMER 71 – 68 ARMY |
| Jan 13, 2024 | AMER 79 – 60 ARMY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARMY | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 6-11 | 8-7 |
| Away | 4-10 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 59.9 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.7 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -10.7 (#326) | -5.6 (#271) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.34 (#343) | -1.45 (#304) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.74 (#340) | -1.63 (#299) |
| RPI | 0.397 (#340) | 0.428 (#316) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARMY | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 15.1% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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