Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | AMER -250 ARMY +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +19 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | AMER -8.9 (+10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.6 (+11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -5.4 (+13.6) | 131.5 (+7.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -5.6 (+13.4) | 132.7 (+6.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -5.7 (+13.3) | 132.0 (+7.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -6.4 (+12.6) | 130.4 (+8.6) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | AMER 75 – 63 ARMY |
| Jan 18, 2026 | AMER 78 – 67 ARMY |
| Feb 19, 2025 | ARMY 76 – 69 AMER |
| Feb 1, 2025 | AMER 71 – 68 ARMY |
| Feb 28, 2024 | AMER 73 – 51 ARMY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-12 |
| Home | 8-7 | 6-11 |
| Away | 8-9 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 59.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 65.7 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#266) | -10.1 (#321) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.17 (#282) | -2.68 (#348) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.37 (#279) | -3.18 (#341) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#293) | 0.353 (#358) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 14.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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