Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | AMER -190 ARMY +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +3 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | AMER -5.8 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (-7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -4.6 (-1.6) | 142.0 (-3.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -5.0 (-2.0) | 141.0 (-2.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -5.0 (-2.0) | 141.0 (-2.0) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -4.8 (-1.8) | 140.4 (-1.4) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | AMER 75 – 63 ARMY |
| Jan 18, 2026 | AMER 78 – 67 ARMY |
| Feb 19, 2025 | ARMY 76 – 69 AMER |
| Feb 28, 2024 | AMER 73 – 51 ARMY |
| Jan 13, 2024 | AMER 79 – 60 ARMY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 76.5 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#248) | -7.7 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#198) | -0.75 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#204) | -1.27 (#256) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#178) | 0.475 (#216) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 29.6 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 16.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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