Betting Lines
| Spread | ARMY -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | ARMY -125 AMER +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARMY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARMY +7 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | ARMY -1.3 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (+0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARMY -0.8 (+6.2) | 140.4 (+4.6) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARMY -0.5 (+6.5) | 140.0 (+5.0) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARMY -0.1 (+6.9) | 140.8 (+4.2) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARMY -0.2 (+6.8) | 141.6 (+3.4) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | AMER 75 – 63 ARMY |
| Jan 18, 2026 | AMER 78 – 67 ARMY |
| Feb 1, 2025 | AMER 71 – 68 ARMY |
| Feb 28, 2024 | AMER 73 – 51 ARMY |
| Jan 13, 2024 | AMER 79 – 60 ARMY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARMY | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-11 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -7.4 (#284) | -5.4 (#254) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#238) | -0.22 (#196) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#261) | -0.49 (#204) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#198) | 0.519 (#143) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARMY | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 16.7% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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