Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | AMER -535 ARMY +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +12 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | AMER -10.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.9 (-11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -8.1 (+3.9) | 141.7 (-3.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -8.5 (+3.5) | 143.7 (-5.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -8.8 (+3.2) | 140.8 (-2.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -8.5 (+3.5) | 140.6 (-2.6) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | AMER 78 – 67 ARMY |
| Feb 19, 2025 | ARMY 76 – 69 AMER |
| Feb 1, 2025 | AMER 71 – 68 ARMY |
| Feb 28, 2024 | AMER 73 – 51 ARMY |
| Jan 13, 2024 | AMER 79 – 60 ARMY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-6 | 6-10 |
| Away | 5-10 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 79.0 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#260) | -12.9 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.14 (#271) | -1.96 (#329) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.40 (#268) | -2.81 (#340) |
| RPI | 0.459 (#251) | 0.424 (#316) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.4% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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