Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | ARMY +195 AMER -238 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARMY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +11 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | AMER -3.8 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.0 (-9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -3.9 (-7.1) | 145.5 (-0.5) | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -3.0 (-8.0) | 146.5 (-1.5) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -3.9 (-7.1) | 144.4 (+0.6) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -3.5 (-7.5) | 144.4 (+0.6) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | AMER 75 – 63 ARMY |
| Feb 19, 2025 | ARMY 76 – 69 AMER |
| Feb 1, 2025 | AMER 71 – 68 ARMY |
| Feb 28, 2024 | AMER 73 – 51 ARMY |
| Jan 13, 2024 | AMER 79 – 60 ARMY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARMY | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-9 |
| Home | 6-10 | 11-6 |
| Away | 5-10 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.0 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -11.7 (#332) | -4.5 (#238) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.05 (#332) | -0.63 (#227) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.89 (#335) | -0.91 (#228) |
| RPI | 0.404 (#335) | 0.480 (#208) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARMY | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 29.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 33.9% |
Game Analysis
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