Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEP +10 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -3.1 (+13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (-5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -3.1 (+13.1) | 143.9 (-3.9) | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -3.1 (+13.1) | 140.3 (-0.3) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -2.8 (+12.8) | 144.9 (-4.9) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -2.9 (+12.9) | 144.5 (-4.5) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | VILL 76 – 57 DEP |
| Dec 31, 2025 | VILL 71 – 66 DEP |
| Feb 6, 2025 | VILL 59 – 49 DEP |
| Jan 4, 2025 | VILL 100 – 56 DEP |
| Mar 14, 2024 | VILL 58 – 57 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-23 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 10-10 |
| Home | 7-8 | 10-4 |
| Away | 2-12 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 67.7 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#195) | 6.2 (#85) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#162) | 0.58 (#125) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#158) | 1.01 (#101) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#153) | 0.536 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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