Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | DEP +220 VILL -270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +10 | 108 | Lost |
| Massey | VILL -3.8 (-6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (-41.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -2.5 (-7.5) | 141.6 (-33.6) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -4.3 (-5.7) | 141.1 (-33.1) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -2.1 (-7.9) | 142.4 (-34.4) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -2.1 (-7.9) | 142.2 (-34.2) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | VILL 76 – 57 DEP |
| Dec 31, 2025 | VILL 71 – 66 DEP |
| Jan 4, 2025 | VILL 100 – 56 DEP |
| Mar 14, 2024 | VILL 58 – 57 DEP |
| Jan 13, 2024 | VILL 94 – 69 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-20 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 11-9 |
| Home | 11-8 | 14-3 |
| Away | 2-10 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#112) | 10.6 (#56) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#180) | 0.68 (#118) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#155) | 1.14 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#222) | 0.513 (#156) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 39.3% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.