Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | VILL -950 DEP +625 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +5 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -15.0 (-10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.2 (-0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -12.4 (-7.4) | 136.1 (+0.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -13.9 (-8.9) | 136.6 (+0.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -12.3 (-7.3) | 135.7 (+1.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -12.9 (-7.9) | 136.2 (+0.8) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | VILL 76 – 57 DEP |
| Feb 6, 2025 | VILL 59 – 49 DEP |
| Jan 4, 2025 | VILL 100 – 56 DEP |
| Mar 14, 2024 | VILL 58 – 57 DEP |
| Jan 13, 2024 | VILL 94 – 69 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 8-12 |
| Home | 14-3 | 11-7 |
| Away | 9-3 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 13.7 (#36) | 2.7 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.35 (#16) | 0.46 (#138) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.17 (#13) | 0.57 (#139) |
| RPI | 0.641 (#18) | 0.491 (#194) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.