Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | DEP +114 VILL -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +19 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | VILL -4.6 (-14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.6 (-2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -2.6 (-16.4) | 135.2 (-2.2) | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -3.4 (-15.6) | 137.4 (-4.4) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -2.6 (-16.4) | 132.8 (+0.2) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -2.5 (-16.5) | 132.4 (+0.6) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | VILL 71 – 66 DEP |
| Feb 6, 2025 | VILL 59 – 49 DEP |
| Jan 4, 2025 | VILL 100 – 56 DEP |
| Mar 14, 2024 | VILL 58 – 57 DEP |
| Jan 13, 2024 | VILL 94 – 69 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 15-5 |
| Home | 11-7 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#96) | 13.5 (#42) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#87) | 2.79 (#25) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#89) | 3.49 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#180) | 0.602 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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