Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -24.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +1 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -22.2 (-21.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.6 (-21.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -21.4 (-20.4) | 134.7 (-19.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -17.7 (-16.7) | 135.1 (-20.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -17.6 (-16.6) | 135.9 (-20.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -21.1 (-20.1) | 136.7 (-21.7) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | VILL 76 – 57 DEP |
| Dec 31, 2025 | VILL 71 – 66 DEP |
| Feb 6, 2025 | VILL 59 – 49 DEP |
| Jan 4, 2025 | VILL 100 – 56 DEP |
| Jan 13, 2024 | VILL 94 – 69 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 3-29 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 0-20 |
| Home | 10-6 | 3-15 |
| Away | 4-8 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L20 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 81.8 |
| Massey | 12.8 (#31) | -9.3 (#318) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#72) | -1.99 (#332) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.05 (#58) | -2.03 (#318) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#82) | 0.421 (#322) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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