Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | VILL -550 DEP +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +44 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -6.7 (+37.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.7 (+2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -7.3 (+36.7) | 149.6 (+6.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -10.5 (+33.5) | 148.0 (+8.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -6.8 (+37.2) | 149.9 (+6.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -6.9 (+37.1) | 150.7 (+5.3) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | VILL 76 – 57 DEP |
| Dec 31, 2025 | VILL 71 – 66 DEP |
| Feb 6, 2025 | VILL 59 – 49 DEP |
| Mar 14, 2024 | VILL 58 – 57 DEP |
| Jan 13, 2024 | VILL 94 – 69 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 14-20 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 4-16 |
| Home | 14-3 | 11-8 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 9.4 (#58) | 6.8 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#104) | 0.55 (#127) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.39 (#93) | 1.07 (#106) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#116) | 0.510 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 40.2% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.5% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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