Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -19.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Over |
| Money | VILL -2400 DEP +1150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +25 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -22.9 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.8 (+27.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -18.8 (+6.2) | 135.8 (+27.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -17.3 (+7.7) | 137.4 (+25.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -17.1 (+7.9) | 136.4 (+26.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -19.0 (+6.0) | 136.4 (+26.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | VILL 76 – 57 DEP |
| Dec 31, 2025 | VILL 71 – 66 DEP |
| Feb 6, 2025 | VILL 59 – 49 DEP |
| Jan 4, 2025 | VILL 100 – 56 DEP |
| Mar 14, 2024 | VILL 58 – 57 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 3-29 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 0-20 |
| Home | 10-6 | 3-15 |
| Away | 4-8 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L20 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 81.8 |
| Massey | 12.1 (#33) | -6.7 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.72 (#59) | -1.46 (#307) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.27 (#53) | -1.63 (#297) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#38) | 0.458 (#248) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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