Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | NAVY -250 LAF +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAF +9 | 109 | Lost |
| Massey | NAVY -6.8 (-15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.7 (-22.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -5.1 (-14.1) | 134.5 (-25.5) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -5.9 (-14.9) | 133.5 (-24.5) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -4.6 (-13.6) | 138.4 (-29.4) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -4.6 (-13.6) | 136.9 (-27.9) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | NAVY 65 – 50 LAF |
| Jan 10, 2026 | NAVY 76 – 50 LAF |
| Feb 8, 2025 | LAF 61 – 51 NAVY |
| Jan 5, 2025 | NAVY 71 – 70 LAF |
| Feb 29, 2024 | NAVY 62 – 58 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 11-23 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-6 | 5-7 |
| Away | 9-7 | 5-16 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 65.6 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#215) | -4.8 (#254) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#215) | -2.13 (#340) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.73 (#226) | -2.42 (#333) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#217) | 0.432 (#298) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 40.7% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 15.0% | 14.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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