Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 121.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +2 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | UNT -11.0 (-9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.8 (+9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -9.2 (-7.2) | 124.8 (+7.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -9.7 (-7.7) | 123.0 (+9.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -8.7 (-6.7) | 128.1 (+3.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -9.8 (-7.8) | 128.6 (+3.4) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2023 | UNT 74 – 46 LT |
| Feb 17, 2023 | UNT 72 – 62 LT |
| Mar 11, 2022 | LT 42 – 36 UNT |
| Feb 26, 2022 | UNT 56 – 49 LT |
| Jan 29, 2022 | UNT 63 – 62 LT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | LT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-7 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 7-13 |
| Home | 14-2 | 9-6 |
| Away | 10-3 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 56.3 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#61) | 1.6 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#33) | 0.20 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.47 (#46) | 0.29 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.609 (#26) | 0.514 (#155) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | LT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.7% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 24.0% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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