Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 117.5 Over |
| Money | UNT -480 LT +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +28 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | UNT -8.0 (+20.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.5 (+0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -8.2 (+19.8) | 124.0 (-4.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -7.5 (+20.5) | 121.5 (-1.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -9.0 (+19.0) | 127.1 (-7.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -8.3 (+19.7) | 128.2 (-8.2) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2023 | UNT 72 – 62 LT |
| Jan 12, 2023 | UNT 67 – 65 LT |
| Mar 11, 2022 | LT 42 – 36 UNT |
| Feb 26, 2022 | UNT 56 – 49 LT |
| Jan 29, 2022 | UNT 63 – 62 LT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | LT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-7 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 7-13 |
| Home | 14-2 | 9-6 |
| Away | 10-3 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 56.3 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#66) | 0.8 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.05 (#35) | -0.06 (#179) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.25 (#47) | -0.16 (#182) |
| RPI | 0.597 (#22) | 0.492 (#190) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | LT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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