Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 124.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +1 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | LT -1.9 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.8 (+1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -1.6 (-2.6) | 130.0 (-5.0) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -2.0 (-3.0) | 130.4 (-5.4) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -3.2 (-4.2) | 131.3 (-6.3) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LT -2.4 (-3.4) | 131.3 (-6.3) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2023 | UNT 74 – 46 LT |
| Feb 17, 2023 | UNT 72 – 62 LT |
| Jan 12, 2023 | UNT 67 – 65 LT |
| Mar 11, 2022 | LT 42 – 36 UNT |
| Feb 26, 2022 | UNT 56 – 49 LT |
Game Analysis
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