Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 118.5 Over |
| Money | LT +155 UNT -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +10 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | UNT -2.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.8 (+13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -3.0 (-7.0) | 128.0 (+6.0) | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -2.9 (-7.1) | 125.8 (+8.2) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -3.7 (-6.3) | 130.0 (+4.0) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -3.1 (-6.9) | 130.9 (+3.1) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2023 | UNT 74 – 46 LT |
| Jan 12, 2023 | UNT 67 – 65 LT |
| Mar 11, 2022 | LT 42 – 36 UNT |
| Feb 26, 2022 | UNT 56 – 49 LT |
| Jan 29, 2022 | UNT 63 – 62 LT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LT | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 31-7 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 16-4 |
| Home | 9-6 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-11 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W5 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 56.3 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#130) | 7.8 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#160) | 2.15 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#164) | 2.37 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#146) | 0.598 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LT | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 29.1% |
Game Analysis
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