Don't talk to me about your big, big heroes "Kelly's Heroes" - Black Grape
The Super Pit · February 26, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread UNT -6.0 Home covered
O/U 126.0 Under
Money UNT -250 / LT +205
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNT win
Actual UNT +7 105 Won
Massey UNT -6.8 (+0.2) — —
Massey Totals — 125.1 (-20.1) —
Bradley-Terry — — 83% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 86% ✓
Baseline Plus ML UNT -6.6 (+0.4) 122.0 (-17.0) 78% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ UNT -7.6 (-0.6) 121.6 (-16.6) 76% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML UNT -7.7 (-0.7) 128.7 (-23.7) 77% ✓
Baseline ML UNT -7.6 (-0.6) 130.3 (-25.3) 76% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 10, 2023 UNT 74 – 46 LT
Feb 17, 2023 UNT 72 – 62 LT
Jan 12, 2023 UNT 67 – 65 LT
Mar 11, 2022 LT 42 – 36 UNT
Jan 29, 2022 UNT 63 – 62 LT

Game Analysis

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