Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +3 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -4.2 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.1 (+18.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -3.8 (-0.8) | 156.6 (+20.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -4.0 (-1.0) | 155.4 (+21.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -4.6 (-1.6) | 155.5 (+21.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -4.2 (-1.2) | 156.0 (+21.0) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | CREI 94 – 93 XAV |
| Dec 17, 2025 | CREI 98 – 57 XAV |
| Mar 1, 2025 | XAV 83 – 61 CREI |
| Jan 30, 2025 | CREI 86 – 77 XAV |
| Feb 10, 2024 | CREI 78 – 71 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-6 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-2 |
| Away | 7-4 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 13.0 (#19) | 13.0 (#20) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.62 (#18) | 1.25 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.55 (#11) | 1.76 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.618 (#19) | 0.579 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.0% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 40.8% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.3% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 77.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 12.5% |
Game Analysis
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