Betting Lines
| Spread | CREI -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | CREI -280 XAV +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CREI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CREI +9 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | CREI -4.6 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.5 (+16.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CREI -4.6 (+4.4) | 140.9 (+22.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CREI -5.6 (+3.4) | 145.4 (+17.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CREI -5.8 (+3.2) | 141.1 (+21.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CREI -5.4 (+3.6) | 140.5 (+22.5) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | CREI 94 – 93 XAV |
| Dec 17, 2025 | CREI 98 – 57 XAV |
| Mar 1, 2025 | XAV 83 – 61 CREI |
| Feb 10, 2024 | CREI 78 – 71 XAV |
| Jan 24, 2024 | CREI 85 – 78 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CREI | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 13-7 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 6-6 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.0 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 13.2 (#40) | 11.9 (#46) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#45) | 1.58 (#63) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#48) | 2.21 (#61) |
| RPI | 0.605 (#32) | 0.542 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CREI | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 38.3% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 30.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.6% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.4% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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