Betting Lines
| Spread | CREI -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | CREI -400 XAV +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CREI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CREI +7 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | CREI -8.7 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (+15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CREI -7.5 (-0.5) | 147.1 (+15.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CREI -7.8 (-0.8) | 150.5 (+12.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CREI -7.3 (-0.3) | 145.2 (+17.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CREI -7.6 (-0.6) | 146.9 (+16.1) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | CREI 94 – 93 XAV |
| Dec 17, 2025 | CREI 98 – 57 XAV |
| Mar 1, 2025 | XAV 83 – 61 CREI |
| Jan 30, 2025 | CREI 86 – 77 XAV |
| Feb 10, 2024 | CREI 78 – 71 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CREI | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 9-11 |
| Home | 14-2 | 11-7 |
| Away | 8-4 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 16.4 (#13) | 11.5 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.26 (#28) | 1.23 (#83) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.84 (#24) | 2.25 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#27) | 0.573 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CREI | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.3% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.0% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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