Betting Lines
| Spread | CREI -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | XAV -111 CREI -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CREI +7 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | CREI -1.0 (-6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.7 (-3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -1.8 (-8.8) | 153.1 (-4.1) | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -1.5 (-8.5) | 151.2 (-2.2) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -0.7 (-7.7) | 150.9 (-1.9) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -0.2 (-7.2) | 152.2 (-3.2) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | CREI 94 – 93 XAV |
| Dec 17, 2025 | CREI 98 – 57 XAV |
| Mar 1, 2025 | XAV 83 – 61 CREI |
| Jan 30, 2025 | CREI 86 – 77 XAV |
| Jan 24, 2024 | CREI 85 – 78 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 14-6 |
| Home | 11-7 | 14-2 |
| Away | 3-9 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 11.2 (#45) | 15.6 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#72) | 1.95 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.28 (#51) | 2.64 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.567 (#72) | 0.590 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 57.1% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 10.8% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 12.2% |
Game Analysis
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