Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | XAV -162 CREI +136 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CREI +41 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | XAV -4.4 (-45.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (+7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -4.0 (-45.0) | 144.9 (+10.1) | 74% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -4.8 (-45.8) | 147.9 (+7.1) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -5.4 (-46.4) | 141.8 (+13.2) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -4.6 (-45.6) | 142.5 (+12.5) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | CREI 94 – 93 XAV |
| Mar 1, 2025 | XAV 83 – 61 CREI |
| Jan 30, 2025 | CREI 86 – 77 XAV |
| Feb 10, 2024 | CREI 78 – 71 XAV |
| Jan 24, 2024 | CREI 85 – 78 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 9-11 |
| Home | 12-6 | 10-6 |
| Away | 1-10 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.4 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#97) | 5.8 (#96) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#103) | 0.39 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#90) | 0.74 (#131) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#97) | 0.528 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 2.14 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 12.4% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 14.6% |
Game Analysis
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