Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | XAV -130 CREI +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +22 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -1.4 (+20.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (-4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -2.5 (+19.5) | 148.5 (-4.5) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -1.6 (+20.4) | 147.6 (-3.6) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -2.6 (+19.4) | 147.1 (-3.1) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -2.2 (+19.8) | 148.8 (-4.8) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | CREI 94 – 93 XAV |
| Dec 17, 2025 | CREI 98 – 57 XAV |
| Jan 30, 2025 | CREI 86 – 77 XAV |
| Feb 10, 2024 | CREI 78 – 71 XAV |
| Jan 24, 2024 | CREI 85 – 78 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 15-5 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-7 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 70.0 |
| Massey | 12.0 (#48) | 13.8 (#35) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#58) | 2.32 (#39) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.28 (#56) | 2.82 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#76) | 0.590 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 11.9% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 12.9% |
Game Analysis
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