Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | APP -163 GASO +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GASO +2 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | APP -5.2 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -2.6 (-4.6) | 132.6 (-0.6) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -2.9 (-4.9) | 132.4 (-0.4) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -2.5 (-4.5) | 132.1 (-0.1) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APP -2.5 (-4.5) | 132.5 (-0.5) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | APP 89 – 74 GASO |
| Feb 12, 2026 | APP 81 – 65 GASO |
| Feb 26, 2025 | GASO 61 – 59 APP |
| Feb 20, 2025 | APP 79 – 74 GASO |
| Mar 9, 2024 | APP 85 – 80 GASO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-7 | 12-4 |
| Away | 6-7 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#200) | -2.5 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#205) | -0.12 (#191) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#213) | -0.10 (#187) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#200) | 0.496 (#188) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 28.0% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 16.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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