Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +8 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -8.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.6 (+9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -5.9 (+2.1) | 140.5 (+5.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | DUKE -8.0 (-0.0) | 140.3 (+5.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | DUKE -6.7 (+1.3) | 142.0 (+4.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -6.4 (+1.6) | 143.2 (+2.8) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | DUKE 70 – 54 PITT |
| Jan 8, 2025 | DUKE 76 – 47 PITT |
| Jan 21, 2024 | PITT 80 – 76 DUKE |
| Jan 10, 2024 | DUKE 75 – 53 PITT |
| Mar 9, 2023 | DUKE 96 – 69 PITT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 14-6 |
| Home | 16-0 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 11.6 (#28) | 7.3 (#75) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.48 (#21) | 1.61 (#58) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.08 (#21) | 2.27 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.628 (#16) | 0.583 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 37.7% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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