Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Over |
| Money | DUKE -240 PITT +196 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +27 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -3.4 (+23.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.8 (+29.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -4.0 (+23.0) | 138.3 (+26.7) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -4.0 (+23.0) | 136.4 (+28.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -2.7 (+24.3) | 136.9 (+28.1) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -3.1 (+23.9) | 138.1 (+26.9) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | DUKE 70 – 54 PITT |
| Jan 8, 2025 | DUKE 76 – 47 PITT |
| Jan 21, 2024 | PITT 80 – 76 DUKE |
| Jan 10, 2024 | DUKE 75 – 53 PITT |
| Jan 12, 2023 | DUKE 77 – 69 PITT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 14-6 |
| Home | 16-0 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 11.8 (#31) | 8.4 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.44 (#17) | 1.73 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.88 (#20) | 2.10 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#16) | 0.574 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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