Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Under |
| Money | PITT +210 DUKE -260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +22 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -0.7 (-21.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (-17.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -0.2 (-22.2) | 142.4 (-14.4) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -1.0 (-23.0) | 140.0 (-12.0) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -0.3 (-22.3) | 142.9 (-14.9) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -0.8 (-22.8) | 144.0 (-16.0) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | DUKE 70 – 54 PITT |
| Jan 8, 2025 | DUKE 76 – 47 PITT |
| Jan 21, 2024 | PITT 80 – 76 DUKE |
| Mar 9, 2023 | DUKE 96 – 69 PITT |
| Jan 12, 2023 | DUKE 77 – 69 PITT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 15-5 |
| Home | 13-5 | 15-3 |
| Away | 7-4 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 11.4 (#42) | 16.2 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#113) | 1.99 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#100) | 2.75 (#36) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#113) | 0.592 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 41.1 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 1.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 13.2% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 77.2% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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