Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | DUKE -1200 PITT +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +29 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -12.4 (+16.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.4 (-19.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -13.3 (+15.7) | 138.4 (-15.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -12.1 (+16.9) | 139.7 (-16.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -12.0 (+17.0) | 137.8 (-14.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -11.6 (+17.4) | 138.6 (-15.6) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | DUKE 70 – 54 PITT |
| Jan 21, 2024 | PITT 80 – 76 DUKE |
| Jan 10, 2024 | DUKE 75 – 53 PITT |
| Mar 9, 2023 | DUKE 96 – 69 PITT |
| Jan 12, 2023 | DUKE 77 – 69 PITT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-4 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 8-12 |
| Home | 17-0 | 13-4 |
| Away | 10-1 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 8-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 25.8 (#2) | 17.5 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.83 (#8) | 3.32 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.36 (#4) | 4.15 (#19) |
| RPI | 0.655 (#9) | 0.648 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 49.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 56.8% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.7% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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