Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | PITT +1300 DUKE -2800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +16 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -18.6 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.6 (-14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -14.2 (-1.8) | 133.5 (-9.5) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -12.5 (-3.5) | 133.3 (-9.3) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -14.2 (-1.8) | 134.2 (-10.2) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -12.3 (-3.7) | 134.8 (-10.8) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2025 | DUKE 76 – 47 PITT |
| Jan 21, 2024 | PITT 80 – 76 DUKE |
| Jan 10, 2024 | DUKE 75 – 53 PITT |
| Mar 9, 2023 | DUKE 96 – 69 PITT |
| Jan 12, 2023 | DUKE 77 – 69 PITT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 35-3 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 17-1 |
| Home | 8-10 | 15-0 |
| Away | 3-8 | 10-1 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 10-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 5.0 (#104) | 26.6 (#2) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#150) | 4.64 (#4) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#137) | 6.30 (#3) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#199) | 0.675 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 49.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 57.1% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 37.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
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