Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | DUKE -1000 PITT +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +4 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -11.2 (-15.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.1 (+12.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -11.6 (-15.6) | 142.8 (+13.2) | 84% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | DUKE -10.0 (-14.0) | 141.5 (+14.5) | 82% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | DUKE -11.0 (-15.0) | 142.2 (+13.8) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -10.4 (-14.4) | 141.7 (+14.3) | 85% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | DUKE 70 – 54 PITT |
| Jan 8, 2025 | DUKE 76 – 47 PITT |
| Jan 10, 2024 | DUKE 75 – 53 PITT |
| Mar 9, 2023 | DUKE 96 – 69 PITT |
| Jan 12, 2023 | DUKE 77 – 69 PITT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 12-8 |
| Home | 15-3 | 13-5 |
| Away | 7-4 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 67.6 |
| Massey | 16.5 (#13) | 9.0 (#63) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.16 (#32) | 0.50 (#135) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.92 (#24) | 0.88 (#121) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#42) | 0.506 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.82 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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