Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | WIN +100 RAD +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RAD +14 | 118 | Lost |
| Massey | RAD -2.9 (-11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (-26.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RAD -2.9 (-11.1) | 139.4 (-21.4) | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RAD -0.8 (-13.2) | 137.0 (-19.0) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RAD -1.8 (-12.2) | 141.2 (-23.2) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RAD -2.0 (-12.0) | 141.4 (-23.4) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | WIN 80 – 78 RAD |
| Jan 21, 2026 | WIN 76 – 75 RAD |
| Feb 12, 2025 | WIN 78 – 74 RAD |
| Jan 4, 2025 | RAD 87 – 67 WIN |
| Feb 16, 2024 | WIN 85 – 69 RAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-4 | 10-3 |
| Away | 4-11 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 66.2 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#274) | 1.0 (#152) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#247) | -0.76 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#257) | -0.87 (#237) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#257) | 0.461 (#251) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 62.1% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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