Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | RGV +260 ACU -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RGV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RGV +17 | 189 | Won |
| Massey | ACU -0.6 (+17.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.0 (+37.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ACU -1.6 (+18.6) | 149.1 (+39.9) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ACU -0.6 (+17.6) | 150.0 (+39.0) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ACU -0.4 (+17.4) | 150.0 (+39.0) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ACU -0.5 (+17.5) | 150.3 (+38.7) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 16, 2024 | ACU 87 – 79 RGV |
| Jan 6, 2024 | ACU 91 – 89 RGV |
| Feb 5, 2022 | ACU 83 – 66 RGV |
| Jan 27, 2022 | ACU 87 – 85 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RGV | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 13-17 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-10 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.2 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -7.6 (#302) | -2.9 (#225) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#242) | -0.62 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#253) | -0.88 (#238) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#198) | 0.454 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RGV | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 29.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 22.2% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 30.7% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 23.9% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 33.0% |
Game Analysis
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