Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ACU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +17 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | ACU -10.5 (+6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.7 (-8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ACU -12.3 (+4.7) | 155.9 (-6.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ACU -9.5 (+7.5) | 156.2 (-7.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ACU -9.6 (+7.4) | 157.8 (-8.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ACU -10.3 (+6.7) | 158.0 (-9.0) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 16, 2024 | ACU 87 – 79 RGV |
| Jan 6, 2024 | ACU 91 – 89 RGV |
| Jan 12, 2023 | RGV 103 – 86 ACU |
| Jan 27, 2022 | ACU 87 – 85 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ACU | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 3-15 |
| Home | 14-3 | 4-9 |
| Away | 6-6 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 79.7 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#143) | -6.3 (#279) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#139) | -1.66 (#304) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#140) | -1.88 (#293) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#161) | 0.443 (#272) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ACU | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 28.0% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.8% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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